Updated March 30, 2012
This is a quick update on events and share price action since Andrew Price narrowly lost at the EGM last Friday.
- Harry Boon won the vote but little else.
- Andrew Price is well but the other price is sick.
- SuX is again under attack for defamation.
- Toby Marchant is mistakenly angry with suX.
- A Good News edition will be published over the weekend
Harry Boon won the vote but little else.
Somehow I get the impression the PaperlinX camp doesn’t have that “winning feeling”. The press coverage in Australia has been far from flattering post EGM, particularly the comments by Orbis. See here.
Then this popped up in the Irish Times. Defalcations happen and I’m saying nothing, other than the mixed messages sent by penalties. A person in a position of responsibility steals €140,000 over 30 months in what appears to be a fairly crude manner. He has no prior convictions and is a good family man; however he’s apparently addicted to alcohol and gambling. Three years in the slammer will cure everything. The same would happen in Australia.
If the same man with the same mitigating factors robbed a bank (no guns involved) or defrauded a pensioner, the penalty would be significantly higher. Just goes to show that penalties for white collar crime are more lenient than for blue collar crime.
Andrew Price is well but the other price is sick.
Andrew Price and his charming wife Mary, it is she who sends the daily PaperlinX Press, are off on holidays for a couple of weeks over Easter. However, they are not going away.
Regular readers will be familiar with suX’s strongly held views about share ownership and share prices. For any newcomers:
“People talk, but money shouts”
“Watch what people do, not what they say”
“When in doubt, follow the money”
See here posted immediately following the EGM where I predicted a share price fall.
Updated March 30, 2012
Dare I suggest that Mr Market agrees with suX. See CHART 3a updated to Friday, March 30, or six trading days since the Boon win. PaperlinX (PPX) closed at 8.0¢ today, Friday. This now gives a whopping 33.3% loss since the EGM.
Significantly, 8.0¢ is lower than the intra-day of a low of 8.8¢ during the highly volatile two hour 14 million share volume bloodbath last Friday.
Now we seem to have slow solid decline by disillusioned bulls, with share price falls in five of six trading sessions. The only "up" day was Monday March 26 when Director Lyndsey Cattermole accounted for 42.7% of that day's volume, see Appendix 3Y here.
Up by the stairwell, down via the elevator shaft.
The price rise from 6.5¢ to 12.0¢ was sustained over seven weeks. The fall from 12.0¢ to 8.0¢ has been like a hot knife through butter.
Where to from 8.0¢
This is an important "round number" price. It has been the subject of support/resistance in the past.
Expect some stabilisation at 8.0¢, however there is "thin air" between 8.0¢ and 6.5¢. Notice how rapidly the fall from 8.0¢ to 6.5¢ occurred in January and the rise from 6.5¢ to 8.4¢ occurred when Andrew Price declared his hand.
In the absence of new money giving new confidence external to PaperlinX restructuring announcements, I expect prices below 8.0¢.
Eventually, opportunists will buy but don't expect them to be in a rush until more disillusioned bulls are shaken out. It's nearly time for a major Boon supporter to start selling to Andrew Price like happened in January.
End Update
SuX is again under attack for defamation.
It appears the folk at PaperlinX didn’t like PaperlinX agrees with suX 99% of times. They weren’t meant too. Clearly it was written in response to the unsavoury atmosphere at the EGM. Games of imputation can get out of hand.
Regrettably a couple of pages will be going for a short break pending resolution of the Concerns Notice received today, Thursday.
The relevant pages are here and here.
I treat this seriously, however there is always the funny flip side to nearly every situation. Without divulging the Notice, you can imagine what it says.
Here are just three examples of humour arising from the Notice:
Humour #1 Everyone knows that PaperlinX follows suX carefully. This has been demonstrated many times. Somehow PaperlinX didn’t think to object to any posting between November 29, 2011 and March 28, 2012 – just on 100 posts. Suddenly, suX is defamatory. Go figure.
Humour #2 As part of any defamation claim there are the usual “loss” and “damage” statements. Please check out share price CHART 3, being the prices of PPX since suX commenced on Nov 15, 2011 and today, Thursday March 29, 2012.
Using ASX guidelines, there are probably five price sensitive events in that time.
15 Nov 2011 – suX commences (I flatter myself)
23 Dec 2011 – Platinum Equity “proposal” announced
03 Feb 2012 – Andrew Price arrives
22 Feb 2012 – Interim Results of PaperlinX
23 Mar 2012 – Boon defeats Price at midday
By sheer coincidence, the day I received the Notice the share price closed at 8.6¢ which is the exact price on Nov 15, 2012. I guess that demolishes one argument.
Since Nov 15, 2011, PPX has never closed above 9.0¢, except when the market thought Andrew Price would win when the price was range bound between 10.5 -12.0¢.
According, because suX supported Andrew Price during which time the share price rose 85% we will legitimately claim that in fact we assisted PaperlinX, not potentially damaged it.
I’m sure the lawyers will have a counter argument which I’ll be prohibited from sharing with you.
Humour #3 Since Boon won the share price has dropped 28%. Hey! Who causes real damage at PaperlinX?
Toby Marchant is mistakenly angry with suX.
Probably he’s just angry with Australia generally this week after reading what Orbis said, see here.
Earlier this week I sent what I considered to be a generally conciliatory note to selected persons. It was marked private and confidential. I also included two journalists who follow PaperlinX closely. Journalists more than anyone understand what private and confidential means. I wanted the journalists to understand my conciliatory position.
I clearly stated two things: 1) There are no blind copies of this email, and 2) In accordance with my strict policy of moderating blog comments it (being the subject matter) won't be published. Not until it is verified or collaborated.
I didn’t expect a response as I rarely receive responses from PaperlinX these days. In fact there was probably no need to respond.
Clearly Toby Marchant thought differently. He sent me a mega-blast copying all original recipients, including the two journalists. Unfortunately he left it as an open letter – i.e. not private and confidential.
At this stage I don’t intend publishing the Marchant response, I have the Concerns Notice to deal with at present; however he gave licence to the journalists.
This is what was reported in Melbourne’s The Age and Sydney Morning Herald today, see here. Good one Toby. Hey! Who causes real damage at PaperlinX?
It’s easy to blame the messenger.
Toby Marchant shows how stupid he really is by not repeating 'Private and Confidential' and the revealling that he paid more than legal entitlements to retrenched staff.
ReplyDeleteNow, given his legal entitlement to pay PXUPA distributions, (except at Directors' discretion), it is surprising that he would voluntarily pay more in retrenchment payments and cease payments to hybrid holders.
As the retrenched executives were friends and colleagues I guess you would expect this cowardly choice from such a weak and pathetic 'leader'.