Hubris, Hope ... Humilation

A chronology of hope triumphing over reality

Join PPX on its quick journey from hubris to hope, then humiliation in five years.

Date
Event
Price
20 April 2006
The hubris of the PaperlinX in 2006 is breathtaking. A MUST READ.to set the scene for what follows. Read the Company Presentation second from the bottom in 2006. It starts with ...


“PaperlinX is the world’s leading fine paper merchant, with businesses in Australasia, Asia, North America, South Africa and throughout Europe.”

Curiously, this was never an ASX Release. On the PaperlinX website it doesn’t appear under ASX and Media Releases at  but under Company Presentations.
$3.132
22
October 2007
Prior to now, Tom Park had bought 100,000 PPX @ an average of $4.026.It gets worse. 
Buys 30,000 PPX @$2.90 on market. 
Confirm here and 70,000 PPX @ $2.754 on market. Confirm here 

M
D buys at the market top. Good one Tom. 
$2.900
7 December 2007
S&P removes PPX from S&P/ASX100 index. Confirm here
$2.324

9 January 2008
New all time low - so early in the GFC!
$2.120
7 March 2008
Tom Park buys 100,000 PPX on market. Confirm here
$2.208
5 May 2008
Harry Boon – Initial Director’s Interest Notice – he already holds 15,000 PPX. Confirm here
$2.351
1 October 2008
PaperlinX announces “accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer” of 2 for 5 at $1.25, being a 29% discount to last closing price and a 22% discount to theoretical ex-rights price (TERP).

It seeks $200M from institutions via a book build and $100M from retail holders (if fully subscribed) via a prospectus. Release ASX Release
$1.750
7 October 2008
Institutional entitlement offer raises only $150M, not   the expected $200M. ASX Release

7 October 2008
Tom Park buys 300,000 PPX on market.  Confirm here
$1.535
8 October 2008
Tom Park buys 100,000 PPX on market. Confirm here
$1.381
17 October 2008
Tom Park buys another 20,000 PPX on market.
$1.461
20 October 2008
Tom Park buys another 20,000 PPX on market. Why does Tom keep buying?
$1.423
28 October 2008
Retail entitlement offer raises $35M, not max of $100M if fully subscribed. ASX Release

3 November 2008
Harry Boon – Participation in Entitlement Offer - 6,000 shares 
(prev held 15,000)
$1.250
3 November 2008
Tom Park – Participation in Entitlement Offer - 120,000 shares (prev held ?)  Clearly Tom thinks he knows better than the institutions, retail shareholders and the GFC. 
$1.250
5 December 2008
ASX queries PaperlinX why PPX price dropped from $1.45 on 10 November to $0.935 today
$0.935
11 February 2009
ASX queries PaperlinX why PPX price dropped from $0.655 on 12 January to $0.315 today
$0.315
12 February 2009
New all time low close – GFC low close. Now we know why the non-renounceable entitlement offer was "accelerated". Did Tom?
$0.305
16 February 2009
PaperlinX lenders grant waivers. ASX Release
$0.325
16 February 2009
Sale of Australian Paper Manufacturing Operations ASX Release
$0.325
24 February 2009
PPX shares soar over 100% on announcements of 16 February. This is called a suckers' rally.
$0.745
1 April 2009
APRIL FOOLS DAY PaperlinX lenders grant waivers – huge penalties paid PaperlinX. ASX Release
$0.540
13 May 2010
PaperlinX finalises refinancing - with important details about new bank facilities and their flexibility to possibly make good lapsed distributions on PXUPA.
$0.825
15 May 2010
A sick JOKE - reported that PaperlinX may pay dividend in 2011. Sadly it wasn't a joke 
$0.805
1 October 2010
Toby Marchant to replace Tom Park effective 1 November. Includes Marchant’s CV & package. ASX Release
$0.450
19 October 2010
Orbis resumes buying PPX  ASX Release
$0.420
31 October 2010
Tom Park – Final Director’s Interest Notice - 860,000 ordinary shares in PaperlinX, and not one bonus share amongst them. I reconciled with ASX releases that his average price of purchased shares was $1.99 ASX Release
$0.445
4 March 2011
S&P removes PPX from S&P/ASX200 index.
ASX Release This is really bad news.
$0.435
28 April 2011
New all time low close. Hey, this must be a mistake as the general market hit a top in April 2011. 
$0.290
13 May 2011
Black Friday Market Update. Shares fall 21% on the day. ASX Release
$0.205
18 May 2011
Toby Marchant reassures the market that all is well. 

Now we know two more things about Toby Marchant - he can't sell paper and he can't sell the financial press.

ASX Notice of Share Briefing: ASX Release
Text of Briefing from Business Spectator:  here  Audio of Briefing: here

This really was the Beginning of the End as written here before 23 December. 
$0.190
9 September 2011
S&P removes PPX from S&P/ASX300 index.
$0.098

       
5 October 2011
New all time low close
$0.068
21 October 2011
PaperlinX makes surprise announcement of stopping PXUPA distribution for Dec 2011. Now we all know why.
$0.086
22 December 2011
Close before ASX Release
$0.081
23 December 2011
Trading And Strategic Review Update ASX Release

A question for enquiring minds. Why didn't PaperlinX advise of the Trading Update earlier, or later? 

Same day was pure coincidence, of course.
$0.088


Bob Cratchit and A Christmas Carol

In the story, Cratchit is first seen at work, where he copies letters by hand in an underheated "dismal little cell", "a sort of tank". He is repeatedly described as "ugly" and clothes himself in a tattered white comforter, since he cannot afford a coat. Cratchit is treated poorly by Scrooge and given a weekly salary of "fifteen bob" insufficient to feed his family a proper Christmas dinner. Nevertheless, he remains loyal to his employer, even in face of the protestations of his wife, who for years has watched her husband work faithfully for the neglectful and stingy Mr. Scrooge.

Scrooge invisibly visits Cratchit and his family in their small Camden Town home on Christmas Day as well as on a future Christmas. He is accompanied on these visits by the Ghost of Christmas Present and the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, respectively.

It is partly through concern for the plight of Cratchit's youngest son, the frail and crippled Tiny Tim, that Scrooge makes the transformation from miser to philanthropist, offering Cratchit a raise and "discussion of his affairs".

12 comments:

  1. The offer mentioned 23 December is ridiculous and the PXUPA holders would most likely do better if the company was wound up. Directors should really focus on asset sales to reduce debt.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ed: Spot on Peter. I could say more but no point being sued for defamation at this interesting stage.

    ReplyDelete
  3. the timing of the asx release is deeply suspect - how long have they had this? why 23 December 2011 - these guys are joking. beware of the incentives in this game - management will be captured by pe - just look at Alinta etc - you have to play this game well if you want to get value for the PXUPA

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ed: Very odd timing. Why don't you write to Mr Orr, see VIP Contacts, and ask him.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Good luck with this. I held Great Southern hybrids - got out before the end but management lies and denials are part and parcel of corporate life.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If the 23 Dec offer is a takeover bid, is there a clause in the PXUPA prospectus that indicates PXUPA holders must get paid out their $100 before ordinary shareholders get any payment?? I'm on holidays and no access to the prospectus, but I think that is the case.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes it appears to be a takeover / Change of Control, but maybe the existing directors will not recommend acceptance of the offer. ACCC will be informed.

    I don't think ordinary shareholders should get a single cent until PXUPA holders get their $100.

    in some ways we want say 50% of PXUPA holders to accept an offer of $21, this makes it easier to payout the remaining PXUPA holders in the future.

    Maybe the takeover bidders are Chinese. In which case dividends are not impotent, and hybrid holders can sit on their units and receive no dividends for a very long time.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Winding up the business will be no good. There is not much to sell and the market is exceptionally soft. After administrators and employees rights, primary debtors, there will be almost nil left for hybrid holders.

    The biggest shock in 23 Dec announcement is further losses.

    I have a gut feeling, the directors have been dealing with the takeover bidder for quite awhile. The directors seem to be acting for the ordinary shareholders, whilst hybrid holders should have the legal right to $100 per unit.
    Everything has be long programmed .... Imparement valuations (which should not be used on hybrid units), ceasing distributions ... Takeover bid, few more steps to go.

    Maybe in future months we will find ourselves collectively taking legal action against James Ore and PaperlinX

    ReplyDelete
  9. Brad Newcombe, ex~F.I.I.G specialist and holder of PXUPA, we need your expert insight

    ReplyDelete
  10. One must really question what is going on in the North American market.

    Why was the President of Spicers removed from his position but still remains employed at Spicers in a minor role (Disruptive to the employees), and is trying to undermine the New President.

    Why does the President of Paperlinx North America (Chris Creighton)continue to remain resident in Seattle, when clearly leadership should be centered in the key Los Angeles market???

    It is because his wife refuses to live in California!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Keep your socks on gentlemen, the road behind was only a precursor to what lies ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ed: I now know why Chris Creighton prefers to live in Seattle, there are many reasons, but 3 blocks from the waterfront in a ritzy suburb is a start.

    PLEASE USE new CONTACT US so we can swap notes

    ReplyDelete