Key Shareholders

Updated January 24, 2012                                                 Twitter: @PaperlinXsuX
Note the movements in substantial shareholders 2007-11. Sourced from Annual Reports 2007-11 and ASX to Jan 13, 2012.

TABLE 1                    SeeTABLE 2 below for full details of the Orbis 18.46%

Holder	Aug 2007	Aug  2008	Aug 2009	Aug  2010	Aug  2011	Jan 10 2012
Orbis ^		5.02	12.61	12.96	18.46	18.46
Maple-Brown Abbot ^^	10.00	12.59	12.36	12.36	12.36	9.15
Schroder Investment		5.06	10.30	10.30	11.02	11.02
DFA Group ^^^					5.02
AXA Group	10.03	15.22
BT Investment			6.42
Capital Group	5.02
Commonwealth Bank				6.02
Franklin Resources Inc				5.01
National Australia Bank			9.63	9.88
Suncorp Metway			9.74	6.36
	25.05	37.89	61.06	62.89	46.86	38.63
	%	%	%	%	%	%

^ Read more about Orbis and it's PaperlinX holdings here and commentary by John Durie in The Australian here.   

^^ Maple-Brown Abbott reduced it's holding from 12.36% to 10.90% on Jan 10, 2012 then to 9.15% on Jan 19. See ASX Notice.

^^^ DFA Group ceased to be a substantial shareholder on October 11, 2011.

Looking at movements in substantial shareholdings since 2007:

·        During the equities bull market, most institutions avoided PPX as it was an underperformer;

·        During the GFC, some institutions favoured PPX as a value and defensive stock, which is what it should be;

·        Since 2010, the institutions have abandoned PPX save for the three long suffering trapped holders;

·        Apparently Orbis bought the ‘Marchant means change’ story in late 2010 which probably accounts for its bleating now;

·        Lots of instos, Australian & USA, have been burned; and

·        The only recent buyers are small scale bottom-feeders.

Conclusion: Substantial shareholders usually act rationally.

TABLE 2 - analysis of ASX Forms 604 filed by Orbis

Price	Date	Prev	Change	New	%	AveSP	$M	#
1.515	15/07/2008	0	22,729,231	22,729,231	5.02	1.515	0.0
0.720	19/12/2008	22,729,231	14,840,194	37,569,425	6.22	1.201	-18.1
0.685	7/01/2009	37,569,425	6,359,524	43,928,949	7.28	1.126	-19.4
0.485	22/01/2009	43,928,949	6,844,084	50,773,033	8.41	1.040	-28.2
0.505	3/06/2009	50,773,033	6,260,904	57,033,937	9.45	0.981	-27.2
0.445	22/06/2009	57,033,937	6,577,020	63,610,957	10.54	0.926	-30.6
0.405	3/07/2009	63,610,957	6,337,976	69,948,933	11.59	0.879	-33.1
0.480	10/08/2009	69,948,933	6,176,317	76,125,250	12.81	0.846	-27.9
0.640	14/10/2009	76,125,250	8,661,790	84,787,040	14.05	0.825	-15.7
0.575	21/10/2009	84,787,040	6,352,305	91,139,345	15.10	0.808	-21.2
0.765	15/04/2010	91,139,345	-6,384,499	84,754,846	14.04	0.811	-3.9
0.820	23/04/2010	84,754,846	-6,509,626	78,245,220	12.96	0.810	0.8	1
0.420	19/10/2010	78,245,220	7,576,311	85,821,531	14.22	0.776	-30.5	2
0.420	18/11/2010	85,821,531	6,820,700	92,642,231	15.35	0.750	-30.5
0.410	24/11/2010	92,642,231	6,091,937	98,734,168	16.36	0.729	-31.5
0.415	2/12/2010	98,734,168	6,470,639	105,204,807	17.43	0.709	-31.0
0.435	2/03/2011	105,204,807	6,227,203	111,432,010	18.46	0.694	-28.9	3
0.065	13/01/2012			111,432,010			-70.1	4

Notes to TABLE 2
#1 Orbis sells down to 12.96% near market top in April 2010
#2 Recommenced buying after Toby Marchant appointed MD on Oct 1, 2010
#3 Last buy just before the final big drop in price -  see 85% Freefall Chart Here
#3 Estimated average purchase price 69.4 cents
#4 Estimated loss at January 13, 2012 is $70.1 million
#5 See PPX vs ASX200 since 2000 here and question why anyone is still invested?


PXUPA Register

We hold a copy of the register.

Expanding upon the details provided in the Top 20 Holders provided in the 2011 Financial Report of PaperlinX SPS Trust here, we provide an extract from the register as at December 11, 2011.

TABLE 3

Holding	No.	Units	% of Total
≥ 9,000	44	1,436,436	50.40%
≥ 2,500 & < 9,000	106	450,134	15.79%
< 2,500	2,245	963,430	33.81%
	2,395	2,850,000	100.00%

Two key issues:

1.    Distressed-debt hedge funds still haven’t appeared on the PXUPA register. Yet there is cash sloshing around looking for deals - see "Next distressed-debt targets in sight"  AFR June 21, 2011; and

2.    If PXUPA holders desire, it won’t be difficult to muster sufficient holders to call an EGM.

Twitter: @PaperlinXsuX